According to the current prognosis, the peak of the virus spread will be in mid-November and the daily rate may reach 4 000 - 5 000. Such a statement made the Head of the National Center for Disease Control and Public Health.
“There is no single tool that accurately determines the situation. We use 3 main tools in our modeling. These are some mathematical modeling tools where we enter a lot of different numbers and according to them these tools calculate the possible distribution. It does not show you exact numbers, but it shows you the trends.
When we started working with these tools in the end of September, all 3 of them were telling us that there would be a growth. The numbers are in accordance with prognosis to some extent, but I have to say it directly, we have a few more cases. Therefore, we have to recalculate the November prognosis. There was a trend which showed that the peak numbers were to come in November, with 3 000 - 4 000 or even 5 000 cases, but we do not want to have 3 000 and 4 000 of them”, - said Amiran Gamkrelidze.